2018 European Region Cyclone Season
The scope of this article is limited to: Mediteranian Sea, North Sea, Ionian Sea, Aegean Sea, Bay of Biscay, Irish Sea, English Channel, and the North Atlantic, east of 30 degrees west, and north of about 30 degrees north (This includes the Azores). The 2018 European Region Cyclone Season was an above average season in terms of activiy. The season runs from June 1 to October 31, due to a limited window of ideal sea temperatures, but the few months of the season often packs many storms as the basin is so large. The Baker Cyclone Center monitors these storms and names them, and each list alternate every 3 years. If a storm causes signifigant death/destruction it may be retired by the World Meterological Organization (WMO). Seasonal Forecasts On March 18, the BCC issued their first forecast . Season Summary Systems Tropical Storm Alice On January 14, the BCC began monitoring a tropical wave heading north from Bermuda for potential development. It originally had issues developing due to strong/moderate upper level winds. However, in the afternoon of January 15, a subtropical ridge turned the storm just north of the Azores. Later that night, upper level winds died down. A weak tropical low began to merge with the wave the morning of January 17. At noon ADT, the BCC gave it a 60% chance of formation. Later that day, at 9 PM ADT, the BCC observed a counter clockwise rotation. Gradual organization and strengthening overnight occurred. At 6 AM ADT, the BCC gave it a 90% chance of formation within 24 hours. By then, it had strenghtened to 35mph. Increased water vapor helped the storm even better organize, then, at 3PM ADT, the BCC classified it as Tropical Depression One. Strenghtening then began to stall. However, 12 hours later, at 3 AM ADT on January 19, the BCC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Alice. At 5AM ADT, Tropical Storm watches and warnings were in effect for most of the Azores. At 6 PM, 50 miles east of Angra de Heroísmo, Azores, the storm reached its peak intensity. At 9 PM ADT, the storm began weakening and disorganization due to strong upper winds. Also at 9 PM, at 40MPH, the storm’s center narrowly missed Angra, just 10 miles south of it. Tropical storm force winds were present on some of the island. No injuries were reported and damage is estimated at $20,000 USD. One person died in the Azores from surfing a wave in the storm. 6 hours later, at 3 AM ADT, the storm lost tropical characteristics but still packed tropcial storm-force winds. At 3 PM, the storm dissipated. Subtropical Storm Ben On February 1, a thunderstorm moved offshore of France. Later that day, a tropical low merged with the storm. Organization was a problem due to moderate upper level winds. Then, on February 3, a high pressure system with lots of dry Saharan air moved 50 miles away from the storm which weakened the disturbance. On February 4, high water vapor was restored, and the disturbance entered favorable conditions including warm water. Early on February 5, a counter clockwise rotation was reported by the BCC, along with a strong new band of wind and rain. On February 5, at 6 PM CEDT, the storm was classified as Subtropical Depression Two. At 3 AM CEDT on February 6, the storm reached 40mph and the storm entered the Ionian Sea. The store became Tropical Storm Ben. At 2 PM EEDT, the storm reached its peak intensity 3 hours before landfall. At 5PM EEDT, the storm amde landfall with 45mph winds, but with a pressure of 1003mbar. The storm almost immediatley dissipated post-landfall, and moved quickly over Greece and Turkey. Tropical-Storm force winds were reported in most of southern Greece. The storm caused about $85,000 2017 USD of damage. No deaths were reported. One major injury and three minor injuries. Major Cyclone Caroline On February 22, a low pressure system entered a surprisingly warm pocket of water and suddenly formed into a tropical disturbance. At noon UTC, the BCC declared the system had a high chance of development. On February 23, at 6 AM UTC, the BCC proclaimed it as Tropical Depression Three. Strengthening occured and later that day, at 9 PM UTC, the BCC upgraded the system to a Tropical Storm. On February 24, it began impacting Spain with tropical storm force winds and is turning north. At 3 PM, it obtained hurricane strength. At 4 AM on February 25, the storm made landfall near Kerabas, France. A tide gauge southwest of Fort Bloque, France observed a 9 foot storm surge. It weakened over land to 90mph, and entered the English Channel at 11 AM. Over the English Channel, the storm slowed down by almost 50%. This allowed for another phase of rapid intensification. At 6 PM, the storm passed just west of the Channel Islands at 110mph. The Channel Islands recorded a peak wind gust of 137mph and was inundated with up to 15 feet of storm surge. At 9 PM, the storm became a major cyclone with winds of 115mph. The storm made landfall with winds of 120mph, at midnight UTC on February 26, south of Plymouth, England. The storm continued and entered the Celtic Sea, and did not make any landfalls in the UK. It peaked in St. George’s Channel with winds of 135mph. The storm moved at close proximity to the Irish Coast. The large 18.5 mile wide eye and a large, wide eyewall caused many areas to experience devestating winds. Dublin observed a 141mph wind gust and storm surge of 11 feet. The storm began weakening after passing east of Dublin. The storm made landfall near Dundalk, Ireland with winds of 80mph at 9 AM on February 27. The storm lost tropical characteristics over Northern Ireland and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. At 6 PM, the BCC issued its final advisory and handed over monitoring to the Met Office, which named it “Storm Caroline”. The extratropical cyclone entered arctic Air in the north Atlantic, and transitioned into a powerful winter storm. Between March 1 and March 3 the storm dumped up to 31 inches of snow in Iceland, causing blizzard conditions, strong winds, and moderate storm surge in many areas. The Met Office, monitoring the storm since February 27, officially declared the monster storm dissipated on March 5 south of Greenland. The storm caused 3-7 billion USD in damages, and killed at least 97 with the death toll still rising. At least 40 deaths occured in the Channel Islands from storm surge and destroyed many buildings there. The worst damage occurred in the Channel Islands, the Irish Coast, and the Southwestern Coast of the UK. The peak wind gust observed was 152mph in Wicklow, Ireland, which was 20 miles away from the eye. Highest storm surge was 16 feet in the Channel Islands. Storm Names The BCC uses 3 name lists for storm naming. The 3 lists alternate every year. If all names are used, Greek Alphabet letters will be used for naming storms. However, Greek alphabet-named storms can not be retired. Full list Alice Ben Caroline Daniel Ella Finn Gaia Harry Ida Jesse Kristin Lukas Matilda Noah Olivia Phillip Racheal Sem Tess Vincent Walby Category:European Hurricane Season Category:European Hurricane Seasons Category:Future Season Category:Future Seasons